Segmentation or disequilibrium for Italian museums? Some reflections and a shock proposal

It is logical to expect that a country that thrives on deep contradictions ends up expressing them also in the culture supply sectors, thus in the museum sector. After all, ISTAT tells us that Italy is a country of untapped cultural potential, in which the demand for museum services has exploded due to flows of tourists-let’s call them ’temporary citizens’-and appears stagnant for citizens of local communities-so-called ’permanent citizens.’ It may seem necessary to ask what policies should be adopted to change this long-term trend.

In the eyes of the author of this article, an aseptic diagnosis is needed to arrive at the serious treatment of a ’malaise’ or problem. However, the first wake-up call emerges in the way data on the phenomenon is reported and debated, even by media outlets. And this raises the need for an analysis of ’structural’ market characteristics in order to propose alternative hypotheses about the nature of a problem.

Let’s start with platitudes: a museum represents a form of ’enterprise’ that moves in a market space. Therefore, there are two types of interpretations consistent with the negative-sign correlation that has emerged over time between the demand for museum services expressed by temporary citizens and that which emerges from permanent citizens. One interpretation stems from the factors that determine the behavior of market demand. The other has to do with the determinants of market supply. In this framework, the preferences of users-particularly temporary citizens-emerge as the weak link in the chain on which the supply side of museum services can plausibly affect marginally. This provides the insight for a proposal from a museum services demand ’shock’: a joining of forces of the private system and the museum world to acquire the knowledge and practical experience needed to push user preferences to align in the way that is deemed most socially desirable. Let us be under no illusion: such an effort only makes sense if the goals of museum service delivery are clear.

A preliminary consideration: understanding the data builds understanding of the rest

Suppose we want to measure the percentage of "Italians over the age of 6“ who have ”visited at least one museum or exhibition during the year." This is done in an indirect way. A population ’sample’ is selected, a questionnaire is administered in which statements of decision-making choices are surveyed. Finally, an ’ingredient X’ is introduced into the analysis: under specific assumptions, the fraction surveyed who claim to have visited at least one museum is deemed ’fairly representative’ of the actual behavior of the entire Italian population.

There is a problem: all ’estimates’ are subject to the effect of different kinds of errors, omissions or measurement choices that can reduce the degree of confidence associated with the validity of our ’ingredient X’. When one is ’less certain’ that the behavior of the limited sample can be representative for the entire population, the degree of ’uncertainty’ of the ’estimate of the number of Italians who visited at least one museum’ increases. In this case, reporting that only 8.9 percent of Italians visited a museum in 2021 without giving a range or range of estimated values-consistent with some level of ’confidence’ or reliability-can provide totally misleading information. Why? If we say that 8.9 percent of Italians have visited a museum - on average - with an estimate that can range from 4.9 percent to 12.9 percent for a given confidence level, we give a clear message: there are other estimated values with plausibility quite different from 8.9 percent. In an international comparison exercise, the ranking between countries based on estimates of participation in museum activities may change from the case where only a ’point estimate’ is considered.

All this is known to statistical agencies. The problem is that the message that comes from a full understanding of the data is not typically passed by the press to the wider public. Therefore, public confidence in ’certainty’ about aspects of the data that may not make sense to read. And, as cultural policies are informed by the data, a reflection on how long-term decisions are made may ensue.

Beyond the data: demand side or supply side?

Let us return to possible interpretations of the ’Italian case’. Let us consider the role of market ’segmentation’. This phenomenon emerges from forms of differentiation of services offered, which end up finding desirability of use in the demand side. Segmentation can also arise from consumption decisions made by museum service users, then generating a response in supply-side decisions.

A different type of hypothesis concerns the mismatch between supply and demand for museum services. This introduces two possible questions: does this occur because supply-side decisions have not taken into account the needs of the demand side, or is it the demand side that does not express consumption decisions for the service offered?

A diagnosis of the deep cause of lack of museum demand by permanent citizens would require one to conduct a study with scientific analysis methods. What emerges, however, is an element of ’weak link’ that is typically difficult to: it is the role of preferences driving (non-)fruition choices.

Why do I intend to emphasize this variable? I answer with a provocative question: does it make sense to expect that the interpretation of user preferences on which a cultural offer is built will translate over time into consistent decisions expressed by the users themselves?

I venture another element of analysis: the distortion to incentives that can characterize the decisions of an enterprise operating in a monopoly context-or in a market structure perceived as such. Museums are ’special’ forms of enterprise because they often act as ’monopolists’: if you want to enjoy an exhibition on Leonardo you can only do so in the facility(s) that offer just that. The problem is that a monopolist is such only if the user side has preferences and resources that lead to consumption decisions for the good offered. And we return to the role of preferences.

A modest proposal

Convincing permanent citizens of local communities to assign a higher degree of desirability in favor of museum offerings includes similar traits than those that are evaluated in companies’ strategic marketing plans. On the museum side, this raises challenges mainly related to the lack of knowledge and the need for tools to address needs. An alternative way is to ’design incentives’ for decisions, which can be monetary or moral in nature among others. Our country has experimented with several monetary incentive interventions with reduction/zeroing of museum admission fees. Attempts at moral incentives emerge in museum service offerings based on the ’active participation’ of local communities, allowing users to contribute to the shaping of offering decisions.

Perhaps an exogenous pro-museum shock is needed. Here is a proposal: the establishment of a partnership between the public and private sectors for knowledge exchanges aimed at expanding cultural participation in the museum sector. Businesses operating in the private sector see the creation of needs from a strategic perspective. They also have-because of their ultimate purpose-the need to redirect the satisfaction of needs to their own products. Not surprisingly, in recent decades, it has been the private sector that has created the technological tools that have underpinned persistent increases in demand for both online and on-demand content: after identifying the demand space, supply initiation has been followed by demand initiation. From the perspective of museums, this would help limit a knowledge gap that could hardly be filled by theoretical training activities. On the other hand, on the basis of what elements could private-sector companies deemed most relevant be persuaded to work for a cause of social benefit? One reason above all: the prestige that would come from meeting the challenge of contributing to the ’brand Italy,’ demonstrating ability to repurpose analysis tools in less competitive and more rigid market contexts. Not donations or grants, but contribution of experience.

This contribution was originally published in No. 19 of our print magazine Finestre Sull’Arte on paper. Click here to subscribe.

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